Edwin Arroyo
The Seattle Mariners made a big trade deadline splash on Friday night with the acquisition of RHP Luis Castillo. In return, the Mariners shipped Modesto SS Edwin Arroyo, Modesto reliever Andrew Moore, 2021 Modesto SS Noelvi Marte and AA RHP Levi Stoudt to the Cincinnati Reds.
The Mariners are 54-47, 12 games out in the NL West, but a half-game up in the Wildcard race. With an extra playoff spot available this year, and looking at the competition, Seattle is in a great spot to make a move to secure a playoff spot. Using their assets in the minor leagues is part of the deal, but there is always much debate over which highly-ranked prospects to part with.
Castillo is 4-4 this year with a 2.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Over 85 innings he has struck out 90 batters and walked 28 with opponents batting .201 against him. His big year was 2019 when he posted a 15-8 record over 190 2/3 innings with 226 strikeouts, 79 walks and a 1.14 WHIP with a BAA of .202.
The shortened 2020 was another good year but 2021 was a disappointing 8-16/3.98 in over 187 2/3 innings with his WHIP climbing to 1.36 and opponents batting average jumping to .255.
Back on top of his game this year, Castillo was a logical trade target for the 38-61 Cincinnati Reds.
Let the debate begin over the Mariners parting with Marte and Arroyo. The top two prospects in the organization prior to the trade, Marte was a standout for Modesto in 2021 and has been impressive at high-A Everett this season as a 20-year old, slashing .275/.363/.462 with 15 home runs.
Arroyo, at age 18, has batted .315/.385/.514 with 13 home runs in Modesto.
Castillo’s the proven major league commodity while the minor leaguers are bets on the future. Seattle hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2001, the longest drought of any of the teams in the four major sports in the U.S. MLB.com’s headline for the trade story said Deadline Stunner. Seattle being a big player this deadline shouldn’t surprise anyone. They almost made the playoffs last year and they’re in a spot they would like to defend this year. It’s go time for them.
For the Reds to get these prospects in return is the stunner for those who follow player development, but this is the game that has to be played. You have to give to get and the results aren’t known for years in a lot of cases.
Castillo’s value add to Seattle should be pretty easy to figure, unless he gets hurt or something odd like a bad psychological reaction to the trade happens and he just doesn’t pitch well. He’s arb-eligible after this season.
The youngsters are harder to predict. There’s a whole industry that makes such predictions and they’re wrong a lot. They’re right about a great many things, but there have been plenty of can’t-miss prospects that missed.
For Marte and Arroyo to be as good as they have been at their young ages is usually a pretty good predictor of upside. But they still have to advance up through the remaining levels and see how advanced they continue to be. If they reach the majors, they could be superstars or fringe players or any number of other things in between. The reaction today and for the coming months is going to be strong and Castillo’s immediate impact in Seattle will be the focus in the short term.
But, as with any deal, we won’t be able to give it an accurate grade for many years. This is the fascinating game that prospect evaluators enjoy.
